Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 24.319199 25.786922 27.346588 29.135938 31.142967 33.337737 35.937415
2025-12-21 22.375650 24.353434 26.557821 29.225087 32.404810 36.127725 40.901008
2025-12-28 21.328159 23.619445 26.257058 29.570179 33.700405 38.797462 45.769853
2026-01-04 20.079373 22.502227 25.354471 29.033955 33.774050 39.863217 48.635366
2026-01-11 19.566218 22.193820 25.359182 29.558677 35.164128 42.695163 54.221362
2026-01-18 19.011368 21.779819 25.179262 29.797807 36.156018 45.050203 59.462152
2026-01-25 18.230103 21.029931 24.514400 29.329507 36.109326 45.884526 62.445131
2026-02-01 17.506533 20.311865 23.842636 28.792388 35.898275 46.420039 64.982360
2026-02-08 16.615290 19.339632 22.790050 27.666505 34.745006 45.389188 64.625044
2026-02-15 16.435498 19.274194 22.922875 28.179814 36.016883 48.258058 71.777670
2026-02-22 16.188264 19.105725 22.903367 28.467337 36.960634 50.694337 78.671510
2026-03-01 15.610231 18.477240 22.230913 27.773285 36.328043 50.392357 79.885042
2026-03-08 14.807935 17.584822 21.244255 26.695061 35.215690 49.495027 80.484158
2026-03-15 14.432305 17.252219 21.017905 26.729000 35.895547 51.899174 89.390046
2026-03-22 14.181235 17.070126 20.982403 27.031854 37.027169 55.307160 102.283108
2026-03-29 13.715839 16.573677 20.474330 26.572196 36.816964 56.074946 108.519590
2026-04-05 13.557009 16.491200 20.550916 27.020749 38.219705 60.364307 127.962255
2026-04-12 13.339461 16.315630 20.480023 27.224661 39.201588 63.973427 148.427615
2026-04-19 12.970937 15.912910 20.055227 26.825043 39.022749 64.922604 159.550022
2026-04-26 12.609027 15.507667 19.610171 26.365767 38.688165 65.450367 169.546162
2026-05-03 12.131450 14.924647 18.880303 25.399841 37.308831 63.242583 164.889096
2026-05-10 12.047726 14.902118 18.990220 25.840765 38.701874 68.201895 203.567299
2026-05-17 11.918523 14.808641 18.986953 26.087345 39.735235 72.524924 248.930639